Monday, August 19, 2019
The Probability of a Major Hurrican Hitting New Orleans :: essays research papers
The Probability of a Major Hurricane Hitting New Orleans           Table of Contents Executive Summary     3 Introduction     3 Hypothesis     7 Analysis & Method     8 Conclusion     10 References     12 Appendix     14 Executive Summary New Orleans, Louisiana lies at the second lowest elevation among major cities in the United States. It is a city surrounded by water, making it almost like an island. To counter this dangerous combination of the low elevation along with the lakes, rivers and swamps surrounding it, the Army Corps of Engineers built a series of levees around the city to foster its protection. It is these very same levees however that might doom the city should a Category 3 hurricane ever hit. Our statistical analyses examined the current belief that there is a 39% probability that New Orleans will be hit by a major hurricane and based on the resulting Z-score, rejected that belief. We did find however that the probability, while not 39%, was still in the 30th percentile range, which should still be a major cause for concern among the leaders and residences of the city of New Orleans. Introduction New Orleans is a city that is rich in culture as well as history. The city is in effect, an island – Lake Pontchartrain surrounds the city to the north, the Mississippi River to the west and south, and a bevy of lakes – including Lake Borne to the east. Surrounding the city is a series of levees to keep these bodies of water at bay. In addition to these levees, the only defense the city has is a series of canals and a very antiquated pumping system. However, the same levees that protect the city, makes it a death trap should a major hurricane make a direct hit to the metropolitan area. The risk of intense flooding brought forth by storm surges of 20+ feet would wipe the city out. New Orleans was founded to be a port to the world – with its intersection at the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico, it was a great location for world trade. However, it was also a cesspool of disease, floods, and other problems. Despite this, the city was a major economic powerhouse and the city grew and prospered despite of the problems. As the city expanded, swampland was reclaimed to expand the city. To protect its citizens, the Army Corp of Engineers built a series of levees around the city. These levees form a bowl around the city. It is precisely this architecture that was meant to protect the city will in effect destroy the city.
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